WASHINGTON - Rising prices, falling home values, stagnant wages and tight credit. It’s a potent combination that has struck the American consumer hard.
In June, the second biggest rise in prices in nearly three decades muted the impact of billions of dollars in government stimulus payments, government figures showed Monday.
Incomes barely budged in June and consumer spending retreated after taking into account the higher prices for food, energy and other items, the Commerce Department data show.
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It’s forcing Americans like Kathy Stanley, of rural Franklin County west of St. Louis, to decide every day what they can and cannot afford, even for staples.
Stanley said Monday that rising gasoline prices had eaten into her budget so drastically that she and her husband have eliminated almost all their discretionary spending.
She said she spent only about one-third what she normally does on her daughter’s back-to-school clothes and has even cut back on staple items as food prices have jumped this year.
“I had to cut back on milk,” she said. “We just drink more water.”
Personal (or consumer) spending edged down 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices. That's the biggest drop since February.
Consumer spending was up 0.8 percent in May and 0.6 percent in June, the Commerce Department said. Those increases were slashed to a modest 0.3 percent increase in May and a drop of 0.2 percent in June, however, when adjusted for rising prices of gasoline, food and other products. Incomes rose just 0.1 percent.
An inflation gauge tied to consumer spending jumped by 0.8 percent in June. That was the second biggest monthly increase since 1981. In September 2005, the gauge rose by 1 percent after Hurricane Katrina shut down Gulf Coast oil facilities and sent energy prices soaring.
Economists said the surge in energy and food prices had dampened the impact of the government’s economic stimulus program which was pumping out $76 billion in payments during May and June as Washington sought to keep the economy from falling into a deep recession.
“You’ve got declining home prices, very tight credit conditions, a soft jobs market and a weak stock market. The consumer has got a lot to deal with,” said David Jones, chief economist at DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based consulting firm.
Consumers do seem to be getting one break. Oil prices, already down more than $20 from their highs hit in early July, dipped briefly below $120 in trading Monday, the first time that has occurred since May.
Even with the recent declines, gasoline is selling for around $3.88 a gallon, up more than $1 from the price a year ago. Last month, gas prices hit an all-time high of $4.11, according to AAA, the Oil Price Information service and Wright Express.
Given that economists estimate that every $1 increase in gasoline is like a $120 billion tax, it’s understandable that consumers are feeling stretched.
Ken Sheeley, 54, a nurse anesthetist who lives in Richmond, Va., said his family has become more cost-conscious, stocking up on staples such as spaghetti, flour and sugar at Sam’s Club and Costco Wholesale Corp. instead of buying them at the grocery store.
The meager 0.1 percent rise in incomes in June followed a sizable 1.8 percent jump in May. Those results were skewed by how the government accounted for the billions of dollars in rebate checks disbursed during the two months, inflating the May figure and making the June performance look weaker.
The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at a 1.9 percent rate in the April-June quarter, more than double the 0.9 percent increase in the January-March quarter. That improvement reflected in part the stimulus payments, although the effect was softened by a surge in energy costs.
Economists believe the $168 billion stimulus program will continue to lift the economy in the current quarter, but many are worried that the economy could slow significantly in the final three months of this year and early next year as the impact from the one-time checks wears off.
